A report by the Eurasia Group says that the November 5 presidential election in the United States will “test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years.”
The political risk consultancy firm’s 2024 global risk report notes that “an unprecedentedly dysfunctional U.S. election will be by far the most consequential (of all elections held worldwide this year) for the world’s security, stability and economic outlook.”
The report suggests the fallout from the election could present an even greater risk to international stability than the conflicts in both Ukraine and Gaza.
The Eurasia Group weighed up the likely outcomes following victories for both Trump and Biden. While Biden would probably concede if the vote went against him, the report stated, many Democrats might view Trump as an “illegitimate candidate” due to his involvement in the January 6, 2021 “insurrection.” If Biden wins, Trump is almost certain to again allege massive fraud and “incite widespread intimidation campaigns” against election officials and workers, the report stated.
If Trump wins a second term in the White House, the Eurasia Group said he should be expected to “weaponize” the U.S. government to go after rivals and crush dissent.
The report noted that the current state of polling made the U.S. election “essentially a coin toss.”